ORSAM Researcher Dr. Kaan DEVECIOGLU analyzed the developments in Sudan for ”Daily Africa”.
The regional and international effects of the events in Sudan since April 2023, the latest developments and the expectations for the future are quite remarkable. ORSAM North Africa Studies Specialist Dr Kaan Devecioğlu evaluated the developments in Sudan for Merhaba Afrika with the questions of Daily Africa Editor Esin Güzel.
What have been the effects of Sudan’s long civil war on Sudan’s national identity, social cohesion, and ethnic and religious composition? What strategies need to be developed for justice, reconciliation, and social recovery in the event of an end to the conflict?
The ongoing civil conflict in Sudan since April 2023 has had significant impacts on the country’s national identity, social cohesion, ethnic and religious composition. This conflict led to the emergence of the conflict between civilian groups and security forces following the fall of the Omar al-Bashir administration in Sudan in April 2019, and the removal of civilian groups from power by the current conflicting actors in October 2021. Thus, these political conflicts of interest, which have deeply undermined social cohesion in Sudan, have also led to divisions in the present day and over national identity. We are experiencing an environment in which the armed groups arising from the nearly 40-year civil war that preceded the partition of South Sudan in 2011 have deeply shaken the notion of national identity in post-Bashir Sudanese politics.
Also, the human rights violations, refugees and poverty caused by the war have reached significant levels. I believe that this situation will be one of Sudan’s main challenges in the post-conflict period in the context of national identity.
Of course, in the event of the cessation of hostilities, a number of strategies need to be developed to ensure justice, promote reconciliation and realise social recovery. Within the framework of the question, justice should be served primarily through independent and impartial investigations into human rights violations and war crimes. Compensation and support programmes for victims and their families should be established. Following the elimination of these grievances, steps should be taken for the new administration to be established within the framework of democratic governance principles.
As I mentioned in terms of promoting reconciliation, as a legacy of the previous years and the post-Bashir process, dialogue and reconciliation processes should be initiated among different ethnic and religious groups within Sudan. In this context, platforms that will bring together different segments of the society will certainly be established. In this sense, the most fundamental tool should undoubtedly be education. This education should be education programmes for all citizens. As a matter of fact, in order to solve the problem of Sudan’s national identity, awareness should be raised on tolerance, multiculturalism and human rights.
The most brutal impact of the civil war and the process following the fall of Bashir on Sudan has been economic. While $1 was 18 cüneyh, today it is reported to exceed 500 cüneyh. In addition, the civil war has devastated many major cities, including the most elite areas of Khartoum, the capital of Sudan. Therefore, in terms of economic and social development, projects should be developed for the reconstruction and economic development of the war-torn regions. Creating new employment opportunities, improving education and health services will be important parts of this process.
The last but important stage will be political reforms. With the contribution of these steps, Sudan’s political structure should be reformed to make it more participatory and to ensure fair representation of regional and ethnic/religious groups. The participation of all different groups in the political process should be encouraged, without any remunerationism.
These strategies are critical for Sudan to achieve long-term peace, stability and prosperity. However, the success of these processes requires the co-operation and commitment of all social groups and the international community. International support and co-operation is therefore important given the fragile domestic political and social dynamics.
The crisis in Sudan has killed many people and displaced many more. What impact do you think this crisis has on regional stability, given the security and humanitarian situation in neighbouring countries?
As I pointed out in answering the previous question, the humanitarian crisis is an important dimension of the conflict in Sudan and this has implications for regional security. Another dimension of the conflict in the context of regional security is, of course, fighters from outside Sudan. Therefore, the crisis in Sudan has not only affected the social and political structures within Sudan, but also had significant impacts on regional stability.
In this context, it is first necessary to draw attention to the refugee and migrant crisis. The number of people fleeing Sudan has led to a significant increase in refugee camps in neighbouring countries. This puts a strain on the social and economic structure of these countries, putting resources and services under further pressure. In this context, the increasing number of refugees in neighbouring countries is straining the resources of humanitarian aid agencies. It is worth noting that this may also lead to a reduction in the resources and attention that should be devoted to other crises in the region. At this point it is also necessary to emphasise the tragic situation that in previous years Ethiopians fleeing the Tigray war returned to their homeland, while Sudanese fled to Ethiopia.
Secondly, it can be says that the instability in Sudan will negatively affect regional trade and economic cooperation. Especially foreign trade is negatively affected. For example, Sudan has a significant part of the world’s reserves of gum arabic, which is an important raw material for products such as cosmetics and cola. In this sense, many foreign companies need this resource in Sudan.
Thirdly, the health and education needs of refugees, in particular, strain the capacities of host countries in these areas. This will lead to social and economic problems in the long run.
Finally, it is also worth noting the security problems. The cross-border mobility of armed groups and militants increases the security problems in the region. This situation brings the risk of the spread of terrorism and armed conflicts.
Therefore, the resolution of the conflict in Sudan is important not only for Sudan but also for all countries in the region. Regional stability can be achieved not only through solutions at the national level, but also through regional and international cooperation and coordination. In this context, it should be noted that neighbouring countries, regional organisations and the international community have failed to support efforts to resolve the crisis in Sudan.
Secondly, it can be says that the instability in Sudan will negatively affect regional trade and economic cooperation. Especially foreign trade is negatively affected. For example, Sudan has a significant part of the world’s reserves of gum arabic, which is an important raw material for products such as cosmetics and cola. In this sense, many foreign companies need this resource in Sudan.
Thirdly, the health and education needs of refugees, in particular, strain the capacities of host countries in these areas. This will lead to social and economic problems in the long run.
Finally, it is also worth noting the security problems. The cross-border mobility of armed groups and militants increases the security problems in the region. This situation brings the risk of the spread of terrorism and armed conflicts.
How do you think the civil war in Sudan is perceived and evaluated by the international community and human rights organisations? What sanctions, humanitarian aid and diplomatic efforts should be implemented at the international level in response to this war? What should be the international community’s attitude towards intervening in the civil war in Sudan?
The civil conflict in Sudan is evaluated by the international community and human rights organisations in the context of human rights violations, humanitarian crisis and regional stability. In this context, human rights organisations have drawn attention to the rights violations caused by the war, particularly the targeting of civilians, arbitrary arrests and torture. However, despite calls for investigations, no significant progress has been seen. Similarly, there have been calls for international aid to address the humanitarian crisis, which has largely entered the country through Port Sudan.
In the context of sanctions, humanitarian aid and diplomacy efforts that can be applied at the international level against the civil conflict in Sudan, sanctions can be brought to the agenda first. In this context, methods such as arms embargo, travel ban on war criminal individuals or groups and asset freeze can be used as a means of pressure for a peaceful solution. In the context of diplomatic efforts, the co-operation of regional and global actors is necessary, but no significant steps have been taken.
Accordingly, the international community’s approach to intervening in the internal conflict in Sudan should be balanced and responsible. Interventions should aim to protect human rights, alleviate the humanitarian crisis and ensure long-term peace and stability. Moreover, any intervention should be conducted within the framework of international law and with respect for Sudan’s sovereignty. This process should be sensitive to Sudan’s internal dynamics and its complex ethnic and religious composition. It is important to adopt a sustainable and inclusive approach to conflict resolution.
Considering the military, economic and political power and resources of the armed parties involved in the civil war in Sudan, what can you say about the course of this war?
We can say that the military power and capacity of the conflicting parties in Sudan can directly affect the intensity and duration of the conflict. In this sense, I believe that four main dynamics will be the main determinant of the course of the conflict. The first of these is undoubtedly economic resources. The Rapid Support Forces are like an international conglomerate, for example, they control Sudan’s gold reserves and have commercial relations with many global actors, especially the UAE. On the other hand, given that the Army is the official governing body in the country, it is close to impossible for the conflict to end at the point of providing economic resources.
It can be said that economic resources also provide internal and external political support to the conflicting parties. The Rapid Support Forces are able to consolidate their power through ethnic connections within the country and in regional countries, especially in Darfur, and their economic power allows them to keep these people together. It also consolidates political support through the economic relations it develops with foreign actors. For the military, on the other hand, both state power and social trust are the main determining factors. Therefore, these conditions indicate that the conflict in Sudan will end with one side prevailing.
Finally, it can be argued that the end of conflicts without further destruction can be realised through pressure to be exerted by international actors on the basis of human rights violations. Therefore, the intervention or support of foreign actors can change the course of war. These interventions may take the form of both military and political support and may affect the balance of power of the parties to the conflict. In this sense, human rights violations and humanitarian crisis can trigger the intervention of the international community. Gross human rights violations can increase the pressure of the international community and influence the course of the conflict.
Thus, the combination of these factors highlights the complex nature of Sudan’s internal conflict and the difficulty of its resolution. The course of the conflict depends on these dynamics, as well as on local, regional and international political developments. Thus, various scenarios for the future of the conflict are possible. However, it is clear that a comprehensive and multifaceted approach is required to achieve peace and stability. This approach should include military, economic and political solutions and be sensitive to Sudan’s internal dynamics.
What are the commitments and responsibilities required for the conflicting parties to reach an agreement on a peaceful and inclusive political transition and for this agreement to be durable? What should be the role of international actors in this regard?
In order for the conflicting parties in Sudan to reach an agreement on a peaceful and inclusive political transition and for this agreement to become permanent, commitments and responsibilities at the local and international levels need to be fulfilled.
In terms of local commitments and responsibilities;
-Mutual sincerity and goodwill between the parties,
-Compliance with the terms of the armistice,
-Gain the trust of civil society by involving all civilian groups in the negotiations during the ceasefire process,
-A fair division of power mechanisms while implementing reforms in the political structure
-Development programmes should be determined in order to heal the wounds caused by the war.
In terms of the responsibilities of international actors;
-A climate of trust can be provided by providing diplomatic support in the negotiation meetings between the parties,
-Provision of technical and financial assistance,
-Stating the rule of law in the context of human rights,
-Preventing attempts to disrupt the peace, including the terms of the ceasefire agreement and the subsequent agreement between the parties.
Interview Esin Güzel
