Diplomacy Shaping the Balance in the Horn of Africa: Somalia and Ethiopia

The long-standing tension between Ethiopia and Somalia continues to impact regional dynamics. Ethiopia’s pursuit of access to the sea and Somalia’s efforts to maintain its territorial integrity are among the key factors increasing the risk of regional conflict. In this process, the role of mediation was pivotal. Ankara successfully brought both sides to the negotiation table through impartial and constructive diplomacy. The negotiations held in Ankara on July 1, 2024, marked a significant step toward easing these tensions. The mediation process not only affects relations between the two countries but also has implications for the geopolitical landscape of East Africa.

Ethiopia’s Quest for Maritime Access and the Nile Dam Issue

Ethiopia seeks access to the sea to sustain its economic growth. However, beyond geographical limitations, it also struggles to fully benefit from the Nile River, despite being one of its primary sources.

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) project represents a strategic development initiative for Ethiopia, yet it is perceived as a threat by Egypt and Sudan. Egypt is working to restrict Ethiopia’s influence over the dam in order to maintain control over its water resources. Simultaneously, Egypt is bolstering its military and economic ties with Somalia to limit Ethiopia’s maritime expansion, transforming this struggle into a direct power contest in the region.

Key Meetings and Mediation Efforts

The mediation efforts to resolve tensions between Ethiopia and Somalia were spearheaded through a series of diplomatic engagements hosted in Ankara. These included:

• July 1, 2024: Foreign Ministers from Ethiopia, Somalia, and Turkey convened in Ankara to initiate discussions. The focus was on establishing a framework for peaceful resolution and fostering regional cooperation.
• August 3, 2024: High-level bilateral meetings between Ethiopia and Somalia, facilitated by Turkey, further explored mechanisms to address disputes over Somaliland and maritime access.
• September 27, 2024: Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan held separate discussions with Somali and Ethiopian counterparts, signaling continued commitment to the peace process.
• December 11, 2024: Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed met in Ankara under the auspices of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. This critical summit culminated in the signing of the “Ankara Declaration,” emphasizing a diplomatic roadmap for resolving disputes.

Diplomatic Moves and Regional Rivalry

The actors influencing the region extend beyond Ethiopia, Somalia, and Egypt. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) supports Ethiopia’s engagement with Somaliland, while China and the United States continue to expand their strategic investments. China’s Belt and Road Initiative plays a significant role in shaping the economic power balance in East Africa.

As competition over trade routes and ports intensifies, strategic assets such as Mogadishu’s port and airport remain sources of tension among regional states.

Mediation for Peace

Resolving tensions between Ethiopia and Somalia through dialogue instead of conflict is crucial for regional stability. Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed have taken deliberate steps to mitigate conflict risks and find peaceful solutions, demonstrating their commitment to diplomacy.

In this process, the role of mediation has been pivotal. Ankara has successfully brought both sides to the negotiation table through impartial and constructive diplomacy. By providing a neutral ground amid regional power struggles, this diplomatic engagement has been instrumental in preventing potential conflicts. The emphasis on peaceful resolutions has encouraged not only Ethiopia and Somalia but also other regional stakeholders to engage in the process.

These diplomatic efforts have drawn the attention of not only regional actors but also global powers. Achieving lasting peace in the Horn of Africa would serve the long-term interests of all parties involved.

Researcher: Semanur Akman